Gold prices could regain momentum towards the end of 2026, with market experts expecting further gains amid uncertainty surrounding the US dollar, declining crude oil prices and continued investment demand. Central-bank purchases, expectations of monetary policy easing and geopolitical developments are also expected to play an important role in shaping the outlook for the precious metal.
According to market analysts, several global economic factors could provide support to gold prices in the coming months. These include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, increasing demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and continued purchases by central banks.
Amit Gupta, Senior Research Analyst at Kedia Advisory Services, believes these factors could help gold maintain its positive outlook despite the possibility of short-term price corrections.
Central Bank Buying and Global Investment Demand Support Gold
Central-bank purchases continue to provide an important foundation for the gold market. Gupta highlighted that official-sector buying remains one of the strongest long-term factors supporting prices.
He explained that a shift towards monetary easing or indications that the interest rate hiking cycle has ended could put downward pressure on US Treasury yields. Lower yields generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate interest.
The US Federal Reserve maintained its target interest rate at 3.75-4.00% on October 28, 2026. Investors are now closely watching its December policy announcement and future guidance for indications about the direction of interest rates.
Central-bank gold purchases also remained strong during 2026. According to Gupta, central banks purchased 321 tonnes of gold during the third quarter, marking a 42% increase compared with the same period last year. Total purchases between January and September reached 675 tonnes, up 6%. China and Poland were among the major disclosed buyers.
Investment demand also strengthened, with global gold ETFs attracting 211 tonnes during the third quarter. Their combined holdings reached a record 4,256 tonnes.
Meanwhile, global gold recycling declined by 8% year-on-year to 314 tonnes during the same quarter. Lower recycling activity could further support the balance between gold supply and demand.
Gold Investment Strategy: Key Support and Resistance Levels
Gupta advised long-term investors to maintain their strategic gold allocations rather than selling their holdings in panic during temporary market corrections.
For new investors, he recommended considering staggered investments through gold ETFs instead of entering the market with a single large investment.
However, he also warned that several developments could put pressure on gold prices. These include a more hawkish Federal Reserve, stronger-than-expected US economic data, rising crude oil prices, withdrawals from gold ETFs and profit-booking by investors.
According to his assessment, $3,800 is an important support level for international gold prices. A weekly closing below this level could weaken expectations of a recovery.
On the upside, the $4,155-$4,240 range remains an important resistance zone that investors should monitor.
Experts Predict Gold Could Reach $4,500 by December 2026
Anindya Banerjee, Head of Research at Kotak Neo, expects international gold prices to move towards $4,400-$4,450 per ounce by the end of 2026. He also believes domestic gold prices could reach Rs 1.50 lakh on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).
Speaking to ANI, Banerjee said he expects international gold prices to rise from around $4,100 to the $4,400-$4,450 range by year-end, with MCX prices potentially approaching Rs 1.50 lakh.
He identified political uncertainty in the United States, declining geopolitical risks in West Asia and lower crude oil prices as important factors that could support gold.
Banerjee also pointed out that falling oil prices could reduce inflationary pressure and lower the possibility of aggressive interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve.
Dinesh Somani, Proprietor of brokerage firm ProIntellitrade Services, also expects gold prices to recover further before the end of the year.
Somani noted that international gold had fallen from a recent high of $4,700 to approximately $3,860 before recovering towards $4,120.
He believes $3,860 could act as a near-term bottom for the remainder of the year. His year-end target for international gold is between $4,450 and $4,500 per ounce.
Domestic Gold Price Outlook: MCX Target at Rs 1.49 Lakh
For the Indian market, Somani identified Rs 1,38,000 as the recent low for gold prices. He expects the market to establish a near-term support level around Rs 1,40,500-Rs 1,41,000, with a possible upside target of Rs 1,49,000.
He does not expect domestic gold prices to fall below the recent low of Rs 1,38,000. According to him, changing geopolitical conditions could also support a V-shaped recovery in the precious metal.
Somani further discussed the impact of currency movements on domestic gold prices. The Dollar Index was hovering around 102, while the Indian rupee had strengthened from approximately 97 to below 94 against the US dollar.
He expects the rupee could move towards 92 against the dollar. Further appreciation of the domestic currency could put pressure on gold prices in India, even if international rates remain relatively strong.
He also expects international crude oil prices to decline further, which could influence the broader economic and financial market environment.
Gold has already recovered from its 2026 low of $3,869.85, recorded on October 30. This followed a historic peak of $5,594.82 on January 29.
With central-bank demand, ETF investments and changing global economic conditions influencing the market, analysts expect gold to remain in focus through the final months of 2026. However, interest rate decisions, currency movements and geopolitical developments will continue to determine its direction.