Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has sharply downgraded its outlook for India’s 2026 southwest monsoon, raising concerns over rainfall shortages, agriculture and water resources.
The agency now expects overall monsoon rainfall to remain at just 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the season. Skymet has also estimated a 70% probability of drought-like conditions across the country.
The revised forecast signals a potentially challenging second half of the monsoon, particularly for farmers and regions that depend heavily on seasonal rainfall.
Rainfall Deficit Could Continue Through Monsoon Season
According to Skymet’s latest assessment, rainfall during the period from June 1 to June 31, 2026 was around 13% below the LPA.
The forecasting agency does not expect the deficit to be fully recovered during the remaining part of the monsoon season. Its latest projections point towards below-normal rainfall in both August and September.
Skymet estimates that:
- August rainfall: 84% of LPA
- September rainfall: 80% of LPA
- Overall 2026 monsoon: 85% of LPA
- Probability of drought conditions: 70%
If the forecast holds, India could face a significant rainfall shortfall during a crucial period for agriculture and water replenishment.
El Niño Raises Concerns for India’s Monsoon
Skymet has linked the weaker monsoon outlook primarily to the emerging influence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
El Niño can disrupt normal atmospheric circulation and has historically been associated with weaker monsoon performance in India, although its impact can vary from one year to another.
The developing weather pattern has therefore become an important factor behind Skymet’s more cautious assessment for the remainder of the 2026 monsoon.
Indian Ocean Dipole Adds More Uncertainty
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is another major factor influencing the latest forecast.
A positive IOD can sometimes help strengthen the Indian monsoon and offset some of the negative influence associated with El Niño. However, Skymet said uncertainty surrounding the strength and timing of the IOD means its potential support for rainfall remains unclear.
As a result, the agency does not expect the IOD to provide enough assistance to significantly improve the overall seasonal rainfall outlook.
What a Weak Monsoon Could Mean for India
A prolonged rainfall deficit could have implications beyond weather conditions.
Agriculture remains heavily dependent on monsoon rains, particularly in areas where irrigation facilities are limited. Lower rainfall could affect crop sowing, yields and farm incomes while also putting pressure on reservoirs and groundwater resources.
A weaker monsoon could also influence food prices, rural demand, electricity generation and the broader Indian economy, depending on how widespread and persistent the rainfall shortage becomes.
With Skymet now forecasting rainfall at only 85% of LPA and assigning a 70% probability to drought conditions, the performance of the remaining monsoon months will be closely watched by farmers, policymakers and businesses alike.