India’s quick commerce sector is expected to record faster growth in net order value (NOV) during the second quarter of FY27, while food delivery platforms are likely to maintain steady momentum, according to a report by Emkay.
The report points to changing competitive dynamics in quick commerce, with higher minimum order values and reduced discounts at some platforms potentially directing customers towards rival services. At the same time, food delivery companies are expected to sustain growth as the industry approaches the festive season.
Quick Commerce Growth Could Reach 21.6% Quarter-on-Quarter
India’s quick commerce industry is undergoing consolidation, with leading platforms expected to see their net order value growth accelerate to as much as 21.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q2FY27, the report said.
Changes in pricing policies, including higher minimum order values and fewer discounts on some platforms, could influence consumer preferences and shift demand towards competitors. Emkay expects these developments to support faster growth in order value across leading quick commerce companies.
In the food delivery segment, order value growth is projected to remain steady at around 18 per cent year-on-year. The report also expects food delivery platforms to maintain their growth momentum and sustain their margin trajectory.
Competition across both segments could intensify as the industry enters the festive season in the third quarter.
Fintech Companies Expect Steady Revenue Growth
India’s fintech sector is also expected to report steady revenue growth and improving profitability in Q2FY27, supported by operating leverage, according to Emkay.
However, the timing of festive-season spending could affect year-on-year payment revenue growth. In FY27, the festive period shifts to the third quarter compared with the second and third quarters in FY26, creating a different comparison base for payment companies.
This shift in consumer spending patterns could influence quarterly performance, even as fintech businesses benefit from operational efficiencies and improving profitability.
UPI Merchant Discount Rate Changes From October 15
The introduction of merchant discount rates (MDR) on certain Unified Payments Interface (UPI) transactions from October 15 is another important factor for the fintech sector, the report highlighted.
Under the framework announced by the government and the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), a 0.4 per cent MDR will apply from October 15 to certain UPI person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions exceeding Rs 2,000.
For transactions worth Rs 75,000 and above, the charge will be capped at Rs 300. Person-to-person (P2P) transfers, merchant payments of up to Rs 2,000 and transactions involving eligible small merchants covered by the zero-MDR framework will remain exempt.
The implementation of these charges is expected to be an important development for payment companies as they navigate changing business conditions and revenue opportunities.
Emkay Sees Attractive Value in Digital Platform Companies
Despite differences in growth rates and profitability, Emkay believes India’s digital platform companies offer attractive investment opportunities because of their long-term growth potential and high operating leverage.
The report cautioned, however, that comparing earnings multiples across these businesses can be difficult. Companies differ in their growth prospects, ability to benefit from operating leverage and stage of profitability.
As a result, investors assessing digital platforms may need to consider each company’s individual business model and financial maturity rather than relying solely on direct valuation comparisons.
Overall, the report expects quick commerce companies to deliver stronger near-term order value growth than food delivery platforms, while fintech businesses focus on revenue expansion and improved profitability amid changes in festive-season spending and UPI transaction charges.
Disclaimer: This article is based on information and estimates provided in the Emkay report and is intended for informational and educational purposes only. The views and projections mentioned are not guaranteed and may differ from actual market outcomes. This article should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Readers are advised to consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.