Muhurat trading is a special stock market session held during Diwali and is considered an auspicious time to begin investments. However, investors often wonder whether the market’s performance during this brief session can indicate how stocks will perform over the following months or year.
Historical data covering Muhurat trading sessions from 2006 to 2025 offers some insight into this question, although it does not establish that a positive close guarantees stronger future returns.
The question is particularly relevant during periods of market uncertainty. On Wednesday, the Sensex fell sharply from its morning high, while the Nifty dropped below 22,700 during afternoon trading. Rising crude oil prices and profit-booking weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, the India VIX, a measure of expected market volatility over the next 30 days, climbed 8.26% to 16 from its previous close of 14.77.
What Does 20 Years of Muhurat Trading Data Reveal?
An analysis of 20 Muhurat trading sessions between 2006 and 2025 shows that the Nifty 50 finished higher in 14 sessions and lower in six. This means positive closing sessions were more common than negative ones during the period.
The strongest performance came in 2008, when the Nifty advanced 6.35% and the Sensex gained 5.85%. In contrast, 2017 was the weakest year in the dataset, with the Nifty declining 0.63% and the Sensex falling 0.59%.
Most Muhurat sessions saw relatively limited price movements, with changes generally remaining within the 1% range.
These historical figures show that the market more frequently closed in positive territory during the special Diwali session. However, they do not establish whether those gains continued in the weeks and months that followed.
Nifty 50 Muhurat Trading Performance (2006–2025)
| Indicator | Historical data |
|---|---|
| Period analysed | 2006–2025 |
| Muhurat sessions studied | 20 |
| Sessions with positive returns | 14 |
| Sessions with negative returns | 6 |
| Best-performing session | 2008 |
| Highest Nifty gain | +6.35% |
| Weakest-performing session | 2017 |
| Largest Nifty decline | −0.63% |
| Typical movement | Most sessions within ±1% |
Can Muhurat Trading Predict Future Stock Market Returns?
A positive closing session does not necessarily mean the market will continue rising. To determine whether Muhurat trading has any predictive value, analysts would need to compare each session’s performance with subsequent Nifty returns over periods such as one month, six months and one year.
The analysis would also need to examine whether returns following positive Muhurat sessions were consistently stronger than those after negative sessions. Comparing these results with the market’s broader historical performance would help determine whether any relationship is statistically meaningful.
The 20-session figures alone are insufficient to establish such a pattern. Stock market performance is influenced by several other factors, including corporate earnings, valuations, interest rates, foreign investor activity and geopolitical developments.
Investors should therefore avoid treating a positive Muhurat close as a reliable forecast of future gains.
Crude Oil Prices and Profit-Booking Put Pressure on Markets
Wednesday’s market decline demonstrated how quickly global developments can influence investor sentiment, regardless of earlier market gains.
Brent crude prices moved above $110 a barrel amid concerns over disruptions to Red Sea shipping and threats to oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Comments by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about the difficulties of reaching a peace agreement with Iran added to concerns surrounding energy supplies.
Selling pressure in banking, capital goods and automobile stocks also contributed to the decline. Information technology shares were among the few segments that avoided the broader weakness.
At 2:13 pm, the Sensex was down 510 points at 73,351, while the Nifty had fallen 200 points to 22,687. The intraday reversal highlighted the influence of international developments, oil prices and sector-specific selling on domestic equities.
How Should Investors Approach Muhurat Trading?
Investors may participate in Muhurat trading as part of their Diwali traditions, but their investment decisions should continue to reflect their financial objectives, risk tolerance and investment horizon.
A positive session should not automatically encourage additional equity purchases, just as a negative close should not be interpreted as a signal of an extended market decline.
For long-term investors, diversification, appropriate asset allocation and the fundamentals of individual businesses are generally more important than the direction of a single trading session.
The historical record shows that positive Muhurat closes occurred more frequently than negative ones between 2006 and 2025. Whether these sessions provide any meaningful indication of subsequent market performance requires further analysis of returns after each session.
An auspicious start may hold cultural significance for investors, but long-term investment decisions should be guided by research, financial planning and an understanding of market risks.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Historical market performance does not guarantee future returns. Investors should assess their financial goals, risk tolerance and investment horizon and consult a qualified financial adviser when necessary before making investment decisions.