Petrol and diesel prices in India could increase in November, according to a forecast by an economist at Oxford Economics. If implemented, the proposed increase could add to household expenses and put further pressure on retail inflation ahead of assembly elections scheduled in several states next year.
Alexandra Harman Prasad, lead economist at Oxford Economics, suggested that November could provide the government with an opportunity to revise fuel prices before the election campaigns begin. However, the potential increase remains a forecast and should not be treated as an officially announced price revision.
Why Petrol and Diesel Prices Could Rise in November
According to the report, a November price increase could amount to nearly half of the cumulative 7.5% increase recorded in May during the US-Iran war.
The report also points to upcoming assembly elections in Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. With several state elections approaching, the economist believes the government may have an opportunity to adjust fuel prices before campaigning gathers momentum.
No confirmed petrol or diesel price hike for November has been established in the information provided. The actual decision will depend on the government’s actions and relevant pricing developments.
Fuel Price Hikes Could Push Inflation Higher
An increase in petrol and diesel prices could affect transportation costs and put upward pressure on the prices of goods and services.
The Oxford Economics report projects that retail inflation could reach 6.2% during the October-December quarter and potentially rise to 6.5% in the first quarter of 2027 if fuel prices increase.
These projections would place inflation above the Reserve Bank of India’s preferred range of 2% to 6%. If fuel prices remain unchanged in November, inflation expectations could decline by 10 to 30 basis points, although inflation may continue to remain relatively high.
Could the RBI Increase the Repo Rate?
Higher inflation could also influence the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decisions. According to the report, the RBI may consider another repo rate increase during an upcoming policy meeting if inflationary pressures continue.
The report states that retail inflation rose to 5.54% in September, its highest level since 2024. A further increase in fuel prices could add to these pressures and complicate efforts to keep inflation within the central bank’s preferred range.
For households, any increase in petrol and diesel prices could affect monthly budgets through higher commuting and transportation expenses. Consumers will need to watch for official announcements to determine whether fuel prices actually change in November.
Disclaimer
This article is intended for general informational purposes only and is based on the forecasts and figures provided in the source material. A possible petrol or diesel price increase is not a confirmed government decision. Inflation projections and monetary policy expectations may change as economic conditions develop. Readers should refer to official fuel price announcements, government releases and Reserve Bank of India communications for verified updates.