India’s economy could grow to more than $8 trillion over the next decade, according to global investment firm KKR. In its October 2026 report, Thoughts From the Road Europe and Asia, the firm said India’s economy has already crossed the $4 trillion mark and could double in size over the coming ten years.
KKR believes the country’s growth potential remains strong, with further gains possible from structural reforms introduced in recent years. According to the investment firm, India does not necessarily need an entirely new set of reforms to sustain its economic expansion, as better implementation of existing measures could also deliver significant benefits.
If India reaches the projected level, it would rank as the world’s third-largest economy by gross domestic product (GDP), behind the United States and China.
India Could Maintain 10–11% Nominal GDP Growth
KKR expects India to remain on a path of 10–11% nominal GDP growth in the coming years. The firm attributes this outlook partly to structural changes introduced since 2014 that have helped strengthen the economy’s growth capacity.
Key reforms include the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), greater formalisation of the labour market, digitalisation and sustained investment in infrastructure.
According to KKR, these measures have helped improve the business environment and reduce the risk premium associated with Indian cash flows. The firm believes their benefits could continue to emerge as implementation improves and more businesses become part of the formal economy.
Existing Reforms Could Deliver Further Economic Benefits
KKR’s assessment highlights the possibility that India has yet to realise the full benefits of reforms already introduced. Rather than depending entirely on new policy changes, the country could support further growth by making existing systems more effective.
Greater formalisation, improved tax compliance and wider use of digital infrastructure could help bring more economic activity into organised channels. These changes may also improve the efficiency of businesses and strengthen the broader economic framework.
The investment firm sees this continuing process as an important part of India’s long-term growth outlook.
High Crude Oil Prices Remain a Challenge
Despite its positive assessment, KKR has identified elevated crude oil prices as a potential source of short-term pressure. Prices remaining around $100 per barrel could create challenges for the Indian economy, particularly because oil costs can affect household spending and business expenses.
At the same time, KKR noted that government policies have limited the extent to which higher crude prices have been passed on to ordinary consumers. As a result, the impact of the current oil price shock could be less severe than during previous episodes.
The firm also sees rising incomes and stronger consumer spending as important long-term drivers of India’s economic expansion. Household consumption is expected to remain a key part of the country’s growth story.
Services Exports and GCCs Could Strengthen Growth
India’s services sector is expected to play an increasingly important role in the next phase of economic development. KKR pointed to Global Capability Centres (GCCs) as an emerging growth engine that is expanding beyond the country’s traditional IT services model.
Services already account for more than half of India’s real GDP growth, according to the report. The country’s growing role in providing engineering, technology, analytics and high-value corporate functions to international businesses could create further opportunities.
As global companies expand these operations, GCCs may help strengthen services exports and support India’s position as a destination for specialised business and technology functions.
KKR Sees Artificial Intelligence as a Potential Growth Driver
Artificial intelligence (AI) has raised concerns about the future of employment in the IT industry, but KKR sees an opportunity for Indian technology companies to adapt and expand their capabilities.
The firm expects Indian IT companies to increasingly integrate AI into their service delivery models. Rather than simply disrupting traditional services, AI could help the industry develop new sources of growth.
By moving beyond routine, lower-value tasks, Indian companies could focus more on specialised, high-value and productivity-driven services. This shift could strengthen their competitiveness and create new opportunities in technology-led business operations.
Overall, KKR’s outlook suggests that India’s ambition to build an economy worth more than $8 trillion will depend on sustained growth, effective implementation of existing reforms, expanding services exports and the ability of businesses to adapt to technological change.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and summarises the economic outlook attributed to KKR. Economic projections are estimates and may change depending on policy decisions, global market conditions and other factors. The information should not be treated as financial, investment or economic advice.