As the southwest monsoon begins retreating from Northwest India, rainfall activity is expected to shift towards the eastern and central parts of the country in the final weeks of the season. The all-India rainfall deficit remained unchanged at 15 per cent, while El Niño conditions have strengthened and are now expected to persist well into 2027, according to a report by Dolat Capital.
The report said East and Central India are likely to account for a larger share of rainfall as the monsoon withdrawal progresses. It also highlighted a well-marked low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal that is moving towards the East Coast and is expected to strengthen before making landfall, keeping rainfall activity elevated across East and Central India in the near term.
Regional Rainfall Trends
East and Northeast India recorded the most noticeable improvement during the week. The rainfall deficit in the region narrowed to 27 per cent from 29 per cent previously.
The South Peninsula also saw a modest recovery, with its rainfall shortfall improving to 26 per cent from 28 per cent. Central India’s deficit remained largely unchanged at 6 per cent.
In contrast, Northwest India recorded a slight deterioration. Its rainfall deficit increased to 10 per cent from 9 per cent in the previous week.
At the national level, the overall rainfall deficit remained at 15 per cent for the season. According to Dolat Capital, the figure remained stable this week after previously showing a continued widening trend, with several regions recording some recovery.
Kharif Sowing Shows Gradual Improvement
Agricultural activity continued to progress during the week, with total kharif sowing reaching 1,103.9 lakh hectares as of September 18.
The gap compared with the corresponding period last year also narrowed. The overall acreage shortfall stood at 15.1 lakh hectares, compared with 16 lakh hectares a week earlier. However, the improvement was not uniform across all crops.
Oilseed acreage moved slightly above last year’s level for the first time this season, while the area under pulses remained stable.
Rice continued to face a larger gap compared with the previous year. Its coverage stood at 429.3 lakh hectares against 445.9 lakh hectares during the same period last year, leaving a shortfall of 16.6 lakh hectares compared with 17 lakh hectares previously.
Cotton also lost some of its earlier gains. Its sowing area stood at 109.6 lakh hectares against 110.6 lakh hectares a year earlier, leaving the deficit at 1 lakh hectare, broadly unchanged from the previous week.
Acreage under sugarcane, as well as jute and mesta, remained largely unchanged.
Overall, kharif sowing continued to move forward, while reservoir storage stayed above the 10-year average across Central and Western India. The South Peninsula, however, continued to lag in both sowing activity and reservoir levels.
El Niño Strengthens Further
Dolat Capital also highlighted a significant strengthening of El Niño conditions. According to the report, the weather pattern is now moving towards what could become one of the strongest El Niño episodes on record and is expected to continue well into 2027.
The strengthening El Niño outlook adds another factor to the evolving weather pattern as the current monsoon season moves towards its final phase. For now, East and Central India are expected to remain the key areas of rainfall activity as the monsoon gradually withdraws from Northwest India.
Disclaimer: This article is based on information and observations cited in the Dolat Capital report and is intended for general informational purposes only. Weather patterns, rainfall forecasts and agricultural conditions can change over time. Readers should refer to official weather and government sources for the latest updates.