The Southwest Monsoon is expected to begin its withdrawal from parts of West Rajasthan around September 19, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The development could mark the start of the seasonal retreat from northwest India, slightly later than the normal withdrawal date of September 17.
However, the beginning of the withdrawal does not mean monsoon rainfall will immediately stop across the country. The IMD has forecast rain in several states over the coming days, with parts of eastern, central and southern India likely to continue receiving showers.
Rain forecast across several states
The IMD has forecast fairly widespread rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad between September 15 and 17. Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab are also expected to see fairly widespread rain on September 16 and 17.
Isolated rainfall is likely in West Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh through September 18. East Rajasthan and East Uttar Pradesh may receive isolated showers through September 20, while Uttarakhand is also expected to see rain through September 20.
In southern India, isolated heavy rainfall is forecast over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal until September 20. Kerala and Mahe may receive isolated heavy rain until September 16, while south Karnataka is likely to see such rainfall on September 15.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana could experience isolated heavy rainfall from September 18 to 20.
Central India is also expected to receive showers, with isolated rainfall forecast over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha until September 20. West Bengal and Sikkim are likely to experience fairly widespread rainfall through September 20, while Bihar may receive rain on September 16 and 17 and Odisha on September 19 and 20.
Monsoon rainfall deficit remains a concern
The expected withdrawal comes after a monsoon season that began with a significant rainfall shortfall. The all-India rainfall deficit stood at 40% in June before improving to 13% by the end of July.
The deficit was around 14% at the end of August and stood at 15% as of September 13, according to the rainfall assessment cited from IMD data.
Although rainfall improved significantly in July following a weak June, the overall shortfall widened again during August and September.
Among the country’s regions, the Southern Peninsular region has recorded the largest deficit, with rainfall around 28% below normal. East and Northeast India have reported a 25% shortfall.
Northwest India has recorded a deficit of around 10%, while Central India has received about 5% less rainfall than normal.
Meghalaya records biggest state-level deficit
Several states have experienced significant rainfall shortages during the monsoon season.
Meghalaya has recorded the largest deficit among the states, at around 59%. Andhra Pradesh follows with a 43% deficit, while Arunachal Pradesh has recorded a 42% shortfall. Punjab has received around 40% less rainfall than normal, followed by Bihar at 35%.
Karnataka has recorded a deficit of around 29%, while Kerala’s shortfall stands at 27%. Tamil Nadu has recorded a 26% deficit, followed by Rajasthan at 25%, Haryana at 23% and Telangana at 20%.
The rainfall situation remains significant for India because the Southwest Monsoon plays an important role in the country’s agricultural cycle.
Monsoon retreat will not end rainfall immediately
The possible withdrawal from West Rajasthan around September 19 should be viewed as the beginning of the monsoon’s retreat rather than the end of the rainy season across India.
Even as the Southwest Monsoon starts withdrawing from northwest India, several parts of eastern, central and southern India are expected to continue receiving rainfall.
The IMD’s latest forecast therefore indicates that active rain is likely to persist across multiple regions even as the monsoon enters its withdrawal phase.